tsuo Inouye/AP - Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe clenches his fist after winning the party leader election of Japan＇s Liberal Democratic Party in Tokyo on Sept. 26, 2012. Abe, known as a hawk and nationalist, won the election to become president of the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party.
TOKYO — Poised to soon reclaim power, Japan’s main opposition party on Wednesday elected as its leader a failed former prime minister whose sharp nationalist bent figures to strain already-damaged relations with neighbors China and South Korea.
With his selection as the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president, Shinzo Abe, 58, is now the odds-on favorite to become Japan’s next prime minister as the country grapples with a flagging economy and a series of fierce territorial disputes. If the LDP, ousted three years ago, returns to power in upcoming parliamentary elections, as polls indicate it will, Abe by default will get his second shot at the premiership.
Abe’s revival is an unlikely one, political analysts in Tokyo say, because his first turn in office — 366 days, from 2006 to 2007 — was such a fiasco, dominated by cabinet scandals and ending with his resignation because of bowel problems.
But his selection also jibes with a growing concern here that Japan is under threat — a sentiment fueled by China’s maritime expansion and its aggressive claims on remote islands that Tokyo considers its own. Abe favors revising key passages in the pacifist constitution, giving more power to the Japanese military, known as the Self-Defense Forces, and allowing it to help allies if they come under attack — something it currently cannot do.
In recent weeks, all five candidates for LDP president had taken a get-tough-on-China position, but Abe was the most belligerent of the group. During a debate last week with other candidates for LDP president, Abe said the disputed islands are “undoubtedly, unambiguously” Japanese territory that should be protected in an “ever-forthright manner.” Beijing, Abe added, “should not enjoy membership in international society” if its government cannot keep protesters from damaging Japanese companies based in China.
Abe won the Wednesday election only narrowly, and some political analysts say the ongoing territorial row with Beijing pushed parliamentarians to support the most hawkish candidate.
Abe defeated former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba, 108 votes to 89, in a head-to-head run-off after none of the five candidates emerged with a majority in the first round. After his victory, Abe made note of his sudden resignation five years ago and said, “I will do my utmost to rise back to power with all of you,” according to the Associated Press.
During Abe’s first stint in office, Japan wasn’t nearly as concerned about nationalist issues — but Abe pursued them anyway. He riled other nations in the region with his denial that Japan’s military, during World War II, had forced women to serve as front-line sex slaves for soldiers. He also pushed for school textbooks to describe a more patriotic version of history that downplays Japanese wartime aggressions.
At the time, Abe’s nationalist slant backfired even in Japan, where polls showed people far more concerned about welfare programs and a flagging economy. Local party members criticized Abe for being tone-deaf to the nation’s problems.
Abe’s tenure set off a widespread disenchantment with the LDP, which culminated in 2009 when the party was throttled in a lower-house parliamentary election, ending its 54 years of near-uninterrupted rule. Since then, the LDP has done little to rehabilitate its image as a monolithic party that spent wastefully on publics works and made its decisions behind closed doors.
But the governing Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), with a series of abandoned populist policies and a much-criticized response to the 2011 natural and nuclear disasters, has done plenty of damage to its own image. According to a Kyodo news agency poll last month, the LDP now has a support rate of 21, compared with the DPJ’s 11, and pundits joke that the next lower-house election has become a race to see which party is less loathed.
Current Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has drawn praise during his year in office from experts and officials in Washington for his ability to win opposition party cooperation in passing a recent consumption tax hike. But the tax increase, along with Noda’s controversial push to restart a pair of idled nuclear reactors, has eroded his support among the public.
“The people’s sentiment is that the DPJ is no good, so let’s go for the LDP,” said Jun Iio, a political science professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. “The problem is that ... the LDP’s popularity is actually small. This is because the LDP has not been successful in giving an impression that they have changed.”
The LDP’s selection of Abe could yet backfire and drive support back to Noda, political experts say. Abe comes from a family of political bluebloods: His father was a foreign minister, and his grandfather was a prime minister. He also must contend with sustained public opposition to nuclear power. Abe, whose party long backed the nuclear industry, has voiced concern about a loose government target to phase out atomic power over the next three decades.
The timing of the next election is largely up to Noda. By law, he doesn’t have to call an election until next August, but he has indicated he will do so before then — perhaps by the end of the year. Political analysts suggest that Noda might agree to dissolve the lower house as part of a deal to win opposition support for a key fiscal bill allowing the issuance of deficit-covering bonds.
No matter which party emerges with the most seats, none is likely to have a majority, setting of a scramble to form a coalition.
Yuki Oda contributed to this report. |
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